Oh hello NBA Playoffs…how I’ve missed your warm embrace. In what has been one of the least competitive NBA Playoffs in recent memory, the tides seem to be turning. Just a handful of days ago, we were all ready to see the Celtics (3-0) and Lakers (2-0) wrap up their series. But with their backs against the wall, both the Magic and Suns have responded in a big way.

Even after the Magic and Suns posted their first win of the series, it only made me irritated as these “fluke” victories were denying the inevitably more competitive Celtics vs. Lakers NBA Finals matchup. Thankfully, my irritation was unfounded.

Lakers vs. Suns

The Suns didn’t even appear to be on the Lakers’ level in the first two games. The Suns’ defense was horrendous, their stars weren’t performing as they needed them to, Lamar Odom was getting “lucky” and Pau Gasol was dominating Amar’e Stoudemire in the post.

In game three, the Suns were able to change the tempo and exploit the Lakers’ sub-par defensive effort. Most importantly, Stoudemire was able to put together a monster 42 point (after scoring 41 points combined in his previous two games) and 11 rebound outing. This performance infused confidence amongst the Suns squad, but most importantly, it got the Suns back in the mode of playing freely and having fun.

The Suns bench was the story in game four. Channing Frye found his shooting touch (scoring 14 points including four 3-pointers) and Suns’ second unit outscored the Lakers’ 54-20. The Lakers’ loose defense was clearly a problem, and the Suns looked to be having as much fun as they have had all season. While it’s unlikely that Bryant (who was absolutely pissed about the Lakers’ defensive effort in his postgame interview) and his talent-superior Lakers will allow the Suns to linger much longer, wins often are the result of momentum and confidence – two things that the Suns now possess.

Celtics vs. Magic

After I had criticized Dwight Howard and Rashard Lewis as being primary reasons for the Magic’s lackluster play, they combined for a productive 45 points and 21 rebounds en route to a big game-four win in overtime. But a major key for Orlando’s newly found success was their change in style of play. They departed from their predictable, pound it into Howard and kick it out strategy, and allowed Jameer Nelson to be a playmaker. Nelson’s penetration and solid decision-making off of pick and rolls began to open up his teammates for open shots.

Game five brought more of the same for Orlando, but they also finally found their shooting touch – knocking down 13 of 25 from downtown. Howard and Lewis both continued their productive play, and the whole Magic team played with an increased level of toughness and focus, maintaining a lead for the vast majority of the game. The Celtics faced a great deal of adversity throughout the game as Kendrick Perkins was ejected in the first half, Glen Davis left the game with a (scary) concussion, Rasheed Wallace had to head to the locker room with back spasms, and Marquis Daniels got in on the action by receiving concussion number two on the night.  Both of Perkins’ technical fouls were questionable and will be reviewed in further detail by the NBA. If they both stand, Perkins will be suspended for game six as it would be his seventh technical of the playoffs. If he is suspended, and Davis and/or Wallace aren’t able to play in game six, the Magic will have a serious advantage in the post, and a good shot at forcing a game seven.

Why is this happening?

My theory, imperfect as it may be, is that the Lakers and Celtics have had a more difficult road to their Conference Final berths. Let me explain.

The Lakers had a closer-than-they-bargained-for series against the Oklahoma City Thunder, dealing with a rowdy OKC crowd and a driven duo of Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant. Even though they went on to sweep the Utah Jazz in the second round, the Jazz were a respected opponent that demanded the Lakers’ focus.

The Celtics had their way with the Miami Heat in the first round, but had to deal with the likes of Dwyane Wade. This required the Celtics to play purposeful team defense to slow down one of the most dynamic scorers in the league. The second round got even tougher, as they faced an even deadlier threat in LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers. Even as underdogs, their chemistry seemed to blossom as they went on to send the Cavs packing in six games.

The Magic and Suns, on the other hand, waltzed into the Conference Finals. The Magic romped over the Charlotte Bobcats and Atlanta Hawks, making it through the first two rounds without losing a game. The Suns were able to put down an injury-riddled Portland Trail Blazers team and put together a surprising sweep against the less-than-impressive San Antonio Spurs. While both teams felt great about their play through the first two rounds, neither of them traveled on a path that would instantly prepare them for the intensity that they would face from their sharpened opponents in the next round.

It’s my guess that the first couple games in both Conference Finals series were a bit of a jolt for the Magic and Suns. Suddenly, each were going against opponents that were vastly superior to any other team they had played for several weeks. Suddenly, everything is a bit more difficult, every shot is a bit more hard-earned, and the decent defense they had been getting away with just wasn’t cutting it any more.

By game three, each team has an idea of the adjustments they need to start to making and they have adjusted to the intensity of the series. Both the Suns and Magic have been able to equal and surpass the energy of their opponents as their series have progressed.

Do you think the Suns or Magic have a shot at pulling a major upset in their series?

This was easily the most entertaining moment of tonight’s battle between the Celtics and Magic. Glen Davis doing this better than anyone I’ve ever seen. What “it” is, is beyond description, but try telling me you’ve seen somebody do this better than the Big Baby himself.

Coming into the Eastern Conference Finals, the Orlando Magic were on a 14-game win streak. After convincing sweeps of their opponents through the first two rounds of the playoffs, Orlando is now down 3-0 to the Boston Celtics. Nobody could have seen this collapse coming. I picked the Celtics to win the series, but I thought it would be a dogfight that would last seven games. Now, Boston Celtics fans are gleefully rummaging through their closets and garages for their brooms.

The Magic collided with the Celtics at the top of their game, and haven’t been able to put together a full 48-minutes of good basketball yet. What is the most concerning point with the Magic’s performance is that the one thing they can control – effort – has been sorely lacking during numerous stretches throughout the series so far. Their performance has been nothing short of embarrassing so far, with sloppy play, indecisive offensive execution, and lack of tenacity on defense.

Before the series, I highlighted two players who would be key to Orlando’s success: Dwight Howard and Rashard Lewis. Both have fallen short of expectations and are big reasons to why the Magic’s season is now in jeopardy.

Howard’s best game came in game two during the Magic’s most-spirited performance, where he put together a 30 point, 8 rebound performance in an Orlando loss. However, this strong offensive game was sandwiched by two 3-10 shooting performances, including a 7 point scoring output in game three. More and more, we are seeing how Howard’s lack of refined post moves has made him an unknown quantity on any given night. If he isn’t getting the ball deep in the post or dunking back offensive rebounds, Howard can easily fade into the fabric of the game. Howard has also failed to grab more than eight rebounds over the past two games. As long as Howard continues to contribute these types of pedestrian outputs on the glass and on the offensive end, the Magic have no chance of winning against the focused Celtics.

And then there’s Lewis. The $118-million dollar man. I had raved about his hot shooting-streak in the playoffs and his ability to stretch opposing defenses. Coming into this series, Lewis was averaging over 16 points per game and shooting an impressive 46% from downtown (24-52). Against the Celtics, Lewis has been passing up shots, missing the shots he is taking, and playing an altogether uninspired series. Just how bad has it been? Lewis hasn’t scored over six (yes, six) points in any game this series, is shooting just 25% from the field and has only made one three-pointer out of his 13 attempts. Lewis has received big minutes too, so lack of playing time can’t be pointed to as a culprit for his drop in productivity.

Interestingly, the poor play of both players is almost certainly related. Both Lewis and Howard feed off of eachother’s strong play. When Howard dominates the paint, opposing defenses are forced to send double-teams to slow him down, freeing up perimeter players (like Lewis) for open shots. Boston has committed to playing Howard man-up, only sending double-teams when absolutely necessary. Howard hasn’t been able to take advantage of this luxury, allowing Boston’s perimeter defense to stay on their own defensive assignments. This has forced Orlando into inconsistent one-on-one play which has led to a stagnant offense.

The Magic are a team that is just one-year removed from the NBA Finals and had one of the best regular seasons in the league. Yet their startlingly bad series begs the question of whether Orlando might need to make some changes to their current roster or perhaps their coaching staff. As a veteran team, Orlando’s difficulties can’t be blamed on growing pains or other similarly hollow excuses. While it is entirely impossible that the Magic just caught the Celtics in a perfect storm of chemistry and focus, there is no excuse for their ongoing inability to match Boston’s intensity in this series on a consistent basis.

Do you have faith that the Magic will return to contending form next season or do you think that this series is telling of trouble brewing in Orlando?

Rajon Rondo is starting to gain some real respect around the league. Case in point is this highlight, where Rondo draws the attention of nearly all the Magic players as he tries to create off the pick-and-roll. And create he does. Tony Allen sees a free lane to the hoop, makes eye contact with Rondo and points to the sky, and finishes on the receiving end of a high-impact alley-oop. Mickael Pietrus – keep an eye on your man!

The second round of the NBA Playoffs weren’t as thrilling as I hoped they would be (the first round either outside of the Los Angeles and OKC series), and there is good reason for that. There were only a couple of games that were truly close and needed crunch time heroics from their stars, while the majority of games were convincing victories. Also, only one of the four series wasn’t a sweep (Cleveland vs. Boston) and even that series included a few blowouts that nobody would have been interested seeing through to the finish. Graphic designer Dan Sweet helped put the second round into perspective with this great chart of game-by-game scoring outputs for each team in each series. He also compiled the data from round one if you are interested.

Since most of the series haven’t been all that suspenseful, what storylines are keeping you glued to the playoffs?

While the NBA world’s collective eyes are still on LeBron James after his disappointing playoff exit, we are just now getting into the best part of the playoffs. In what has been one of the most lopsided NBA playoffs in recent memory, I have faith that the Boston vs. Orlando matchup will bring us a truly competitive series. Both teams have been at the forefront of the Eastern Conference for the past few seasons, and both seem to be hitting their stride at the right time. Orlando hasn’t lost since April 2nd and are riding a 14-game winning streak (including a flawless playoff run). The Celtics, despite having a rollercoaster of a regular season, just knocked off a 61-win team in a best-of-seven series. They are beginning to click as a collective unit – and it’s no surprise that this chemistry has coincided with the emergence of a finally healthy Kevin Garnett. Let’s take a look at the key factors for the Eastern Conference Finals:

The Magic have been playing as well as any team in the league down the stretch, and they have been hanging their hat on the defensive end. Through their first two series they have held their opponents to a stifling 83 points per game. This is impressive even though they were playing against a Charlotte team with a hobbled Stephen Jackson and a Hawks team that looked liked they’d rather be anywhere other than a basketball court. While the “rest vs. rust” debate is always present, I think the more pressing concern will be for the Magic adjusting to an opponent that is so much more superior to what they’ve faced so far. With the Celtics, they face a team which has three (if not four) future Hall-of-Famers who seem to all have their eyes on one last championship run.

The biggest key for Orlando will be keeping Dwight Howard in the game. While this wasn’t an issue against the Hawks, it certainly was against the Bobcats – where Howard never saw more than 29 minutes in a game. You can get away with not having your best player on the court against the Bobcats, but the Celtics are an entirely different beast. Kendrick Perkins has a sore knee, but he’ll play through it in Game 1 tomorrow and will be a major factor. Perkins will have to be as physical as possible with Howard on both ends of the court, try to disrupt his game in any way possible, and lure him into foul trouble. If Perkins can’t be effective, the Celtics will be in a tough spot if they expect the ever-softening Rasheed Wallace to check Howard.

There are also a couple of other key matchups to look out for, such as Garnett vs. Rashard Lewis. Garnett came up absolutely huge against Cleveland, abusing Antawn Jamison, Anderson Varejao and the like with unstoppable fadeaways and post moves. Lewis, also not known for his defensive prowess, will have a tough time competing with Garnett if he gets it rolling in the low post. Lewis, however, has been invaluable to the Orlando offense as he continues to stretch out defenses with his outside shooting. In Orlando’s eight playoff games so far, Lewis has hit 24 threes and has shot 46% from behind the arc. It will also be interesting to see how well Orlando can contain Rajon Rondo, who has been brilliant in the playoffs – dropping dimes like Stockton and even hitting the glass Rodman. Rondo will be a big step up from Raymond Felton and Mike Bibby, so Jameer Nelson certainly has his work cut out for him.

Where Boston has a notable edge is with their bench players. While both teams rely heavily on their starting-five, Orlando’s only real threat off of their bench is Mickael Pietrus, Boston has the likes of Wallace, Tony Allen and Glen Davis – all of whom are capable of being X-factors on any given night. Speaking of Davis, am I the only one who hopes that the kid he pushed in last year’s playoffs has a courtside seat again?

My Prediction: I’m taking the Celtics in 7. I think that they are the more savvy team, ultimately have more talent and versatility, and most importantly they have the most to lose. This Celtics team’s championship windows, regardless of if they make it to the Finals again this year or not, is clearly closing. This is close to an all-or-nothing situation for the Celtics as they are currently assembled.

Who do you think will be the Eastern Conference representative in this year’s NBA Finals?

The All-Star break seemed to have stunted the momentum of the East’s two top teams. In their first game back, the Cleveland Cavaliers (43-19)  had a disheartening loss to the Denver Nuggets in overtime at the hands of Carmelo Anthony. The following night, the Cavs were visibly deflated against the Charlotte Bobcats and were outplayed from start to finish for their second consecutive loss. While the Orlando Magic (37-19) had a gimme  win against the abysmal Detroit Pistons in their first game back from the break, a horrific fourth quarter against the Dallas Mavericks on Friday resulted in a loss that just shouldn’t have happened.

The Magic and Cavs will go head to head tomorrow in what will surely be a statement game. Some bad blood has developed between these teams, largely stemming from the Magic’s series victory in last year’s Eastern Conference Finals. Cleveland is 2-0 against Orlando this season, but with the Cavs’ recent lackluster play, the Magic are the close favorites to come out on top (see the detailed NBA odds).

The Cavs’ offseason acquisition of Shaquille O’Neal was with the primary thought of de-throning the Magic in mind. While O’Neal has only averaged 10 points and 5.5 rebounds a game against the Magic this year, he’s used 10 (of his 12 fouls) and been a physical body that has been successful in slowing down Dwight Howard. Howard has only averaged 15 points a game versus the Cavs this season. O’Neal and Howard have also developed a bit of drama between each other in regard to the “Superman” nickname. While O’Neal was the first to be called Superman, it seems to me as though he has enough nicknames of his own to not be concerned with others trying to copy his style.

Cleveland has continued to tinker with their roster in ways that could impact their ongoing rivalry with the Magic. The recent addition of Antawn Jamison should provide them with a more natural matchup with the Magic’s Rashard Lewis. While Jamison isn’t exactly known for his stellar defense, his athletic ability makes him a better fit to guard Lewis – whose game thrives on his perimeter skills and quickness advantage over bigger power forwards. In response to the addition of Jamison, Lewis was quoted as saying:

“It doesn’t scare me. One guy doesn’t win ballgames. They do have another guy called LeBron James, which is going to be our focus.”

The Jamison trade also meant the exit (at least in the short term) of Cavs center Zydrunas Ilgauskas. While “Big Z” is certainly on his decline, not having him in the lineup is a notable advantage for the Magic, who will be able to feed Howard with ease when O’Neal is relegated to the bench.

The Cavs do, however, have Mo Williams back in the lineup after recovering from a shoulder injury. He is a key to the Cavs’ success, as the threat of his outside shooting helps to spread the floor and provide James more room to operate and create. The play of the Magic’s backcourt will be equally important. They’ll rely heavily on Vince Carter to put points on the board, which he has been doing quite well in the month of February. Last time these two teams met, Carter shot an ugly 5 of 16 from the field in a close game, so a solid outing from him would be a serious step toward an Orlando win.

Prediction: Cleveland will come out victorious again. The Cavs aren’t playing their best of the season, but that is the very reason that LeBron James will come up big in tomorrows game. Do you think James will let the Cavs drop three straight? Me neither.

Kendrick Perkins on the keys to shutting down Dwight Howard, who was held to 1-7 shooting and committed seven turnovers in their Christmas day matchup (from The Boston Globe):

“You got to play him physical. Watch other teams around the league, they pretty much let him set up shop, throw elbows, let him get whatever he wants to get. You just got to go in and be prepared to go to war. You’ve got to fight him first, hit him first, and that’s about it…If you are going to throw blows, you got to be able to receive them. He likes to get physical but he don’t like for nobody to get physical with him. He wants to be the one doing all the pushing and things like that. I mean, if you are a physical person, you like the contact, you should invite it.’’

Tracy McGrady on leaving the Rockets due to his disagreement with Rick Adelman’s decision to limit his playing time (from The Houston Chronicle):

“I’m a player, man. I don’t make these decisions. I just abide by whatever they bring to me. That’s the plan. I’m not going to argue and fight with them — just run with it. I felt it was time (to increase the routine of playing seven to eight first-half minutes)…I’m not going to cause any confusion or confrontations. As a player, that’s what I felt. They obviously feel different. That’s what I have to roll with.”

Randy Foye on whether or not he felt a burden in Minnesota given the comparisons to Brandon Roy, who he was traded for on draft day. (from the Minneapolis Star Tribune):

“The media made a bigger deal out of the Foye-Roy thing. I felt as though they could have pushed for me harder. I was fighting against fans that were reading that and I was fighting against the media…I understand he was Rookie of the Year. I understand I got hurt my second year. But you look at how I progressed and you look at the past rookies there — besides Kevin Love — and how I was making progress, I felt I was right there.”

Kobe Bryant on the Lakers’ disconcerting loss against the Cavaliers (from PE.com):

“They played harder than we did. It’s as simple as that,” Kobe Bryant said. “They came out and outworked us. It’s a good wakeup call for us.”

LeBron James on the Cavs’ convincing win over the Lakers (from ESPN.com):

“It wasn’t about sending a message to them, it was about sending a message to ourselves and seeing how we match up with the best team in the NBA at this point. It was a good road win for us. I think it ranks up there, just because of the caliber of the team and the caliber of the players they have.”

Michael Beasley on the possibility of Dwyane Wade leaving the Miami Heat this Summer (from NY Daily News)

“He’s got to do what’s best for him…I wouldn’t say it’s a slap at us if he comes here. But I don’t want to think about him leaving. It will be weird without him.”

Shaquille O’Neal on handling boos from the crowd, after receiving a mixed response from the fans in L.A. (from ESPN):

“I’ve been in the league long enough that boos don’t bother me. I first got booed in Brownsville, Texas, and the worst booing I had was in Starkville, Miss., so if you can handle boos from Brownsville to Starkville, you can handle boos anywhere.”

Brandon Roy on the Blazers’ recent resurgence (from OregonLive):

“We’re playing, not thinking. I think early in the season we thought about the expectations instead of just playing loose and free. Now, it’s like we’ve lost the expectations and we have found we are loose.”

Stan Van Gundy on the NBA’s binge of marquee games on Christmas (from the Orlando Sentinel):

“I know this: I won’t watch one second of any of the other four games today. I have no interest whatsoever. I’m a big basketball guy, but this is a day to spend time with your family. That’s not a great advertisement for Stan Van Gundy and the NBA, but I actually feel sorry for people that have nothing better to do on Christmas Day than watch an NBA game.”